Understanding Climate Change: Bite 1.5.2 – It’s Serious.
Bite 5 of this series explained the effects we are already starting to see as our Climate is Changing. Here, we expound on the most insidious, yet least well understood effect: sea level rise.
By changing the energy balance on the earth’s surface, the Land and Atmosphere will change their temperature, and reach a new state fairly quickly. However, the Glaciers and Oceans have enormous energy inertia and hence will take many centuries to respond to a new energy balance. It is only when the whole system is in a new equilibrium, will the climate and weather patterns reach a new stable.
The long term implications of the rise in sea level, are really quite profound. At the current 1.2oC rise we see an 8” rise in the oceans, but have committed to 10 ft of rise over many centuries to reach a new equilibrium. And our Business-As-Unusual (BAU) energy practices are predicted to cause a least 3oC rise by the end of this century, committing to 25 ft sea level rise. These figures are not exaggerations, but “most likely” estimates based on thermodynamic energy balancing (1).
In this BAU scenario, many coastal areas will become submerged, including highly populated areas such as: New Orleans, London, Dakar, Shanghai, New York….
Some countries may have the resources to build sea defenses (such as The Netherlands are doing), but most will have to succumb to sea encroachment, causing a Climate Refugee crisis of roughly 2 billion people, by as early as 2100 (2).
Climate Central have prepared images based on future global temperature scenarios (3). Here is one of Liberty Island.
Sea Level rise and associated more frequent extreme weather events have huge implications and can only be mitigated by reversing the rise in GHGs in the atmosphere.
1. https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1219414110
2. https://www.sciencedaily.com/rel.../2017/06/170626105746.htm
