The Big Picture
The illustration shows future warming of the planet will depend on actions taken to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases. With no action, the earth will warm by 4.1C or more. The pathway to only a 1.5C increase is based on the Paris Climate Accords
Lynas (1) describes the impacts of climate change at increasing global temperatures (1-6oC), referencing hundreds of scientific articles. He tells us that the “No climate policies” outcome of 4.1oC or more has catastrophic consequences. The pathway to the Paris Climate Accords target of 1.5oC is now considered unlikely (2). The more likely scenario seems to be about 2.5oC – in the “Current policies” and “Pledges & Targets” range. This is a temperature not seen on earth in the history of our species – since 3 million years ago.
By 2100 the key impacts of this scenario are projected to be:
Increased extreme weather events (heat waves, droughts, hurricanes, heavy rainstorms) affecting over a third of the world’s population.
Loss of glaciers and snow cover, resulting in 10’s of millions of people losing their fresh water supply.
Desertification of many regions in Africa, South America and Southwest USA.
Loss of coastal land from sea level rise of two to three feet that will annually flood the homes of 400 million people (3) and cause an estimated 2 billion climate refugees (4).
A longer-term commitment of 17 feet sea level rise, flooding numerous low-lying areas and major cities across the earth including: New York, London, Doha, Jakarta, Ho Chi Min City, Amsterdam, Shenzhen….(5)
Extinction of approximately 20% of all living species (6).
Loss of all corals.
These are significant impacts that will cause major world turmoil and huge loss of human and other life. That is a certainty.
However dire the projected future impacts of climate change maybe, there is hope. Major adversity often spawns human ingenuity and a bringing together of the nations of the world to fight a common enemy. We are likely to see:
Plentiful, low-cost sustainable energy – enabling continual growth in health and quality of life.
Virtual elimination of air pollution, saving upwards of seven million lives per year from respiratory diseases.
Collective efforts to build resilience to climate change and reverse the causes.
Better understanding of biodiversity, leading to new and improved preservation practices across the globe
Yes, our children and grandchildren will face serious impacts as a result of our mistakes and procrastinations to act. But they will likely ultimately rise to the challenge and create a better, more sustainable world.